Deserts May Be Creeping Closer to Cities - Study

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05.26.2006
By ANDREW BRIDGES
Associated Press

Deserts in the American Southwest and around the globe are creeping toward heavily populated areas as the jet streams shift, researchers reported Thursday.

The result: Areas already stressed by drought may get even drier.

Satellite measurements made from 1979 to 2005 show that the atmosphere in the subtropical regions both north and south of the equator is heating up. As the atmosphere warms, it bulges out at the altitudes where the northern and southern jet streams slip past like swift and massive rivers of air. That bulging has pushed both jet streams about 70 miles closer to the Earth's poles.

Since the jet streams mark the edge of the tropics, in essence framing the hot zone that hugs the equator, their outward movement has allowed the tropics to grow wider by about 140 miles. That means the relatively drier subtropics move as well, pushing closer to places like Salt Lake City, where Thomas Reichler, co-author of the new study, teaches meteorology.

"One of the immediate consequences one can think of is those deserts and dry areas are moving poleward," said Reichler, of the University of Utah. Details appear in Friday in the journal Science.

The movement has allowed the subtropics to edge toward populated areas, including the American Southwest, southern Australia and the Mediterranean basin. In those places, the lack of precipitation already is a worry.

Additional creep could move Africa's Sahara Desert farther north, worsening drought conditions that are already a serious problem on that continent and bringing drier weather to the countries that ring the Mediterranean Sea.

"The Mediterranean is one region that models consistently show drying in the future. That could be very much related to this pattern that we are seeing in the atmosphere," said Isaac Held, a senior research scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He was not connected with the research.

A shift in where subtropical dry zones lie could make climate change locally noticeable for more people, said Karen Rosenlof, a NOAA research meteorologist also unconnected to the study.

"It is a plausible thing that could be happening, and the people who are going to see its effects earliest are the ones who live closer to the tropics, like southern Australia," said Rosenlof. Her own work suggests the tropics have actually compressed since 2000, after growing wider over the previous 20 years.

Reichler suspects global warming is the root cause of the shift, but said he can't be certain. Other possibilities include variability and destruction of the ozone layer. However, he and his colleagues have noted similar behavior in climate models that suggest global warming plays a role.

Moving the jet streams farther from the equator could disrupt storm patterns, as well as intensify individual storms on the poleward side of the jet streams, said lead author Qiang Fu, a University of Washington atmospheric scientist.

In Europe, for example, that shift could mean less snow falling on the Alps in winter. That would be bad news for skiers, as well as for farmers and others who rely on rivers fed by snowmelt.

"This definitely favors or enhances the frequency of droughts," Fu said of such a shift.

http://www.forbes.com/entrepreneurs/feeds/ap/2006/05/26/ap2777005.html

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Faster atmospheric warming in subtropics pushes jet streams toward poles

25-May-2006

Contact: Vince Stricherz
vinces@u.washington.edu (vinces@u.washington.edu)
206-543-2580
University of Washington (http://www.uwnews.org/)

The atmosphere is warming faster in subtropical areas, around 30 degrees north and south latitude, than it is elsewhere, University of Washington-led research shows. But scientists examining more than 25 years of satellite data also found that each hemisphere's jet stream has moved toward the pole by about 1 degree of latitude, or 70 miles.

That could widen the tropics and expand some of the world's driest regions, they say.

"It is direct observational evidence of atmospheric circulation changes seen from satellites," said Qiang Fu, a University of Washington associate professor of atmospheric sciences and lead author of a paper detailing the findings in the May 26 edition of the journal Science.

Co-author John M. Wallace, a UW atmospheric sciences professor, said it is not clear yet whether the movement of the jet streams is key evidence for global warming or just an anomaly. He said more work is needed to understand precisely why the jet streams are moving, but he added that if the movement continues the long-term impact on rainfall could be serious.
"The jet streams mark the edge of the tropics, so if they are moving poleward that means the tropics are getting wider," Wallace said. "If they move another 2 to 3 degrees poleward in this century, very dry areas such as the Sahara Desert could nudge farther toward the pole, perhaps by a few hundred miles."

The researchers analyzed satellite temperature data collected from 1979 through 2005 and found the troposphere was warming faster in a band around 30 degrees north latitude – which crosses the southern United States, southern China and north Africa – and around 30 degrees south latitude – which crosses southern Australia, South Africa and southern South America. The troposphere is the layer from the Earth's surface to about 7.5 miles in altitude, the part of the atmosphere in which most weather occurs.

While a poleward shift of jet streams is a strongly supported prediction by computer models of 21st century climate, the models also show the fastest warming will occur in the tropical upper troposphere. Instead, the research found that warming was actually a bit faster at 30 degrees latitude in both hemispheres than over the equator. The enhanced warming at 30 degrees latitude has helped to reshape the atmosphere's pressure surfaces in a way that pushed the jet streams toward the poles, Fu said. The position of the jet streams – the band of strongest westerly winds aloft – is important because it determines the northern and southern limits of the major wet and dry belts on the surface.

Other authors of the paper are Celeste Johanson, a UW atmospheric sciences research assistant and graduate student, and Thomas Reichler, an assistant professor of meteorology at the University of Utah. The work was supported by grants from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
The scientists examined measurements from devices called microwave-sounding units on NOAA satellites. The satellites use similar equipment and techniques to measure microwave radiation emitted by oxygen in the atmosphere and determine its temperature.

Fu and colleagues previously analyzed these measurements to show that the troposphere actually is warming as much as the Earth's surface, a key piece of evidence to demonstrate that the Earth is warming faster than can be accounted for by natural processes.

The new research suggests that faster subtropical warming of the troposphere, which moves the jet streams, also could shift mid-latitude storm tracks poleward, Wallace said. That could reduce winter precipitation in regions such as southern Europe, including the Alps, and southern Australia.

Fu noted the research also appears to show that enhanced warming in the troposphere corresponds closely with enhanced cooling in a higher atmospheric layer called the stratosphere, which extends from about 7.5 miles in altitude to about 31 miles.

"It's a very intriguing problem, why the increase in tropospheric temperatures and the decrease in stratospheric temperatures in the subtropical region happens in tandem, almost exactly," he said.

For more information, contact Fu at (206) 685-2070 or qfu@atmos.washington.edu (qfu@atmos.washington.edu); or Wallace at (206) 543-7390 or Wallace@atmos.washington.edu (Wallace@atmos.washington.edu); or Johanson at (206) 543-0333 or mceleste@u.washington.edu (mceleste@u.washington.edu); or Reichler at (801) 585-0040 or thomas.reichler@utah.edu (thomas.reichler@utah.edu)
REPORTERS NOTE: Isaac Held, senior research scientist with NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., is available to comment on this work. He did not take part in the research. He can be reached at (609) 452-6512 or isaac.held@noaa.gov (isaac.held@noaa.gov)

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-05/uow-faw052206.php

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The tropics may be expanding

29.05.2006

Scientists don’t know if global warming is responsible

http://www.innovations-report.de/bilder_neu/60338_earth.jpghttp://www.innovations-report.de/images/leer155.gifThis map of the Earth shows areas of particularly strong warming of the lower atmosphere in yellow, orange and reddish colors. Note the enhanced warming of midlatitude regions north and south of the equator, indicating the expansion of the tropics. The map also shows pronounced warming at Arctic latitudes. Credit: Qiang Fu, University of Washington

Atmospheric temperature measurements by U.S. weather satellites indicate Earth’s hot, tropical zone has expanded farther from the equator since 1979, says a study by scientists from the University of Utah and University of Washington.

Researchers say the apparent north-south widening of the tropics amounts to 2 degrees of latitude or 140 miles. But they do not know yet if the tropical expansion was triggered by natural climate variation or by human-caused phenomena such as depletion of the atmosphere’s ozone layer or global warming due to the greenhouse effect.

The study is being published in the Friday May 26 issue of the journal Science.

"It’s a big deal. The tropics may be expanding and getting larger," says study co-author Thomas Reichler, an assistant professor of meteorology at the University of Utah. "If this is true, it also would mean that subtropical deserts are expanding into heavily populated midlatitude regions."

Droughts and unusually dry conditions in recent years in the subtropical American Southwest and Mediterranean Europe may be related to expansion of the tropics, he added.

Reichler conducted the study with principal author Qiang Fu, who earned his Ph.D. degree at the University of Utah and now is an associate professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle. Other co-authors were Professor John M. Wallace and graduate student Celeste Johanson, also atmospheric scientists at Washington.

Satellites Take Earth’s Temperature

Reichler said the study makes no conclusion about the cause of the tropical expansion, but is purely observational, based on 1979-2005 measurements by the TIROS-N and NOAA 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 14 weather satellites. NOAA is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, parent agency of the National Weather Service.

There has been debate over the interpretation of atmospheric temperature measurements collected by microwave sounding units (MSUs) on the weather satellites. But Science reported in a May 12 news story ("No Doubt About It, the World Is Warming," page 825) that scientists with competing views hashed out their differences and now agree the weather satellite data show warming of the lower atmosphere, or troposphere, which extends from the ground up to 55,000 feet at the equator and 23,000 feet at the poles.

While those measurements dealt with global averages, the new study shows specifically that Earth’s midlatitudes got about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer during the past 26 years, suggesting there has been a change in the average position of the subtropical jet streams. These rivers of air � one in the Northern Hemisphere and one in the Southern Hemisphere � move west to east and mark the meteorological transition from tropical to subtropical climates.

"We analyzed 26-year-long satellite measurements of atmospheric temperatures and found a distinct and very robust pattern of warming, which suggests that each subtropical jet stream has moved poleward by about 1 degree latitude," Reichler says. "This poleward movement took place over both hemispheres, indicating that the tropics have been widening. � Independent [weather balloon] observations of the atmosphere confirm these findings."

He adds: "The possible expansion of the tropics may be a totally new aspect of climate change. We don’t know for sure what triggered it. My research is investigating whether it is related to global warming or not. � One can certainly think of various mechanisms of how global warming-related changes in the atmosphere could induce the changes we see. But it’s very speculative at this point. That’s what our research is going to look at."

The tropical zone is defined geographically as the portion of Earth’s surface characterized by hot weather and located between the Tropic of Cancer at 23.5 degrees north latitude and the Tropic of Capricorn at 23.5 degrees south latitude. But meteorologists generally consider the tropics extend 30 degrees latitude north and south of the equator.

The subtropics � which also tend to have hot climates � are the indefinite belts in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres that are between tropical and temperate zones. The U.S. desert Southwest is considered subtropical, Reichler says.

Earth has two polar jet streams at polar latitudes, one in each hemisphere, and two subtropical jet streams closer to the equator, also one in each hemisphere. The jet streams, at altitudes of roughly 30,000 feet, are relatively narrow streams or tubes of high-speed air moving generally west-to-east, but in a path that meanders widely in a north-south direction. They represent boundaries between warm, tropical air masses and cooler air closer to the poles. In the Northern Hemisphere, the polar jet stream generally is found between 30 degrees and 70 degrees north latitude, while the subtropical jet stream generally is confined between 20 degrees and 50 degrees north latitude.

The average position of each subtropical jet stream marks the location of dry, subtropical desert regions on the land below, such as southwestern United States. But in winter, Pacific cyclones can move along the track of the jet, bringing storms to California.

Pushing the Subtropical Jets toward the Poles

The study implies that warmer midlatitude temperatures mean the subtropical jet streams have moved farther from the equator based on the idea that warmer air makes the lower atmosphere, or troposphere, expand and bulge upward. Thus, warmer midlatitude temperatures create a bulge that pushes the subtropical jet streams toward the poles.

The study found that while the lower atmosphere or troposphere at midlatitudes got warmer during the past 25 years, the overlying stratosphere got cooler.

"This pattern of warming in the troposphere where we live and cooling of the stratosphere above may actually cause a change of the jet positions," Reichler says.

Global warming might cause tropical expansion another way, he adds. The El Nino climate phenomenon � characterized by a pool of warm water in the western tropical Pacific moving eastward toward the Americas � often causes warmer, drier summers at midlatitudes. Other studies have shown tropical sea surface temperatures have warmed during the past 25 years. If ocean warming by El Nino can cause warmer, drier summers, then so should a general increase in tropical ocean temperatures � a possible mechanism for tropical expansion, Reichler says.

The researchers considered the possibility that the 26-year warming trend might be an illusion caused by data from the strong El Nino of 1997, which caused record midlatitude temperatures in 1998. But the midlatitude warming trend remained even when data from the 1997 El Nino was excluded.

If global warming isn’t responsible for tropical expansion, another possible cause is the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer due to pollutants such as refrigerant gases. Ozone loss cools the stratosphere while the troposphere warms � the same pattern from global warming due to greenhouse gases.

http://www.innovations-report.de/html/berichte/geowissenschaften/bericht-60338.html