AbuMubarak
06-06-04, 03:08 PM
What are the chances of…?
http://www.khilafah.com/home/category.php?DocumentID=9636&TagID=1
Many of us were taught at school that the branch of mathematics known as probability theory was the science of gamblers. It is a numerical manner of quantifying the precise probability of an ace being dealt from a deck of 52 cards, or a seven being rolled from two dice or a ball stopping on a particular number on a roulette wheel. When gambling on more complex outcomes like a horse winning a race etc other, less well defined, variables have to be taken into account. So here the track record of horse, trainer and jockey, the going on the day and many other factors have to be considered. These principles of probability have now pervaded all aspects of life. Probability theory has gone from the smoke filled rooms of the poker player to the market place, oil production, manufacturing, shipping and even the health care industry.
Health care is an interesting case, as it illustrates many of the issues of probability based risk assessment in a manner that is, apparently, far removed from politics. The risk of death from heart disease is understandably a huge issue that dominates the lives of millions of Americans of a particular age and social status. It is one of the biggest killers of middle class American males between the ages of 40 and 60 years. There have been many prognostic and diagnostic tests developed to aid doctors stratify patients who are suspected of being at risk of a major coronary event. This stratification process helps free-up beds, rationalise treatments, and deliver the most appropriate care for those most at risk. There are currently web sites that offer do-it-yourself checks of cardiac risk. The user may type in values for age, gender, cholesterol and blood pressure and obtain an estimation of 10-year risk of having a heart attack. The process is not an exact science. However formula for calculating cardiac risk are the most developed out of all of the major diseases. Similar approaches are being developed for prostate cancer, breast cancer and Alzheimer’s etc. These models are more akin to astrology than realistic measures of morbidity and mortality. The bottom line is that the medical risk assessment is big business, as the North American male population are prepared to spend big bucks on knowing their long- and short-term health predictions. Diagnostic kits and tests to predict are a lucrative business. These come in the form of home cholesterol and blood pressure testing kits as well as laboratory and hospital based methods. The absolute life span of a human being cannot be predicted using a blood spot test on a strip of plastic. Basically they are getting ripped off, but this doesn’t stop them spending.
It is not just health care that is dominated by the quack practitioners and predictors. We are living in a time when probabilities and statistical evaluations seem to almost govern our lives in every aspect. Investments and markets trends are predicted based on models of probability. These predictions affect employment, manufacturing and production, import and export, foreign investment, loans and credit agreements and almost every element of the modern day economy. As with health care, there are vast amounts of money to be made merely by applying mathematical models without substance.
Returning to the issue of how probabilities affect individuals, there is one particular phenomenon that casts a spell on millions the world over. In 2001 Americans wagered $57 billion dollars on lotteries, $18 billion on horses and dogs, $592 billion in casinos, and $150 billion on other forms gambling. It is difficult to see how anyone would spend money on a lottery ticket considering how long the odds are. Massachusetts sells more than $500 worth of lottery tickets each year for every man, woman, and child. Thousands of people there are just throwing away money to have a 1-to-135,145,920 chance for the jackpot. Applying the term one in a million chance is actual talking up the likelihood of winning. These are not reasonable or rational odds to gamble on. If Western society is sincere in its adherence to scientific ideas and enlightened philosophy how does it explain the fact the people en mass throw away their money chasing a dream, with next to no chance of it being realised.
Perhaps there is a simple explanation; greed. This emotion can push rational people to do irrational things, especially when they are being egged on to do so. Western nations exploit their own poor with lotteries and the like. It is mostly the poor that throw their money into the black hole of national lotteries. This exploitation is explicit in some of the advertising bought by the $400 million spent annually by states to promote lotteries. For example, in Chicago one sign read: “This could be your ticket out.” Ticket out of what? Perhaps the squalid situation that the American underclass find themselves in. In the UK the slogan is “it could be you”, yes it could be you that is lifted from the gutter that you are living in, you poor pathetic piece of dirt. The organisers of lotteries are merely mocking the punters.
Lotteries are not the only example of irrational thought influencing the masses. The West is proud of the enlightened philosophers, their renaissance artisans and their rational scientists. All of these works are worth a hill of beans in light of the irrational culture of fear that is cultivated among the common people of the West. Americans are told to be scared of their own shadow, with regards to those evil terrorists that are about to pounce and destroy all that they cherish. Engendering fear of the terrorist threat is the political lifeblood of politicians such as Blair, Bush and Berlusconi et al. Instilling this concept of fear of Muslims in the people was helped significantly by the image of approximately 3,000 people dying live on cable news network back in September 2001. However horrific those scenes were, one would of thought that “rational” Americans would have the capacity to put things into perspective. If they were to apply the techniques of cold calculated risk assessments, they would see that the actual number of Americans dieing in a terrorist attack on American soil in the year 2000 were zero, as was the case for 2002 and 2003. Even in the year 2001 the probability of dieing in an attack was 1 in 100,000. In that year there was a greater chance of an American dying from influenza or pneumonia; 1 in 4,500, or suicide; 1 in 9,200, or homicide; 1 in 14,000. So the average American should be more scared of himself or his fellow American taking his life rather than some foreign terrorists.
The other big killer, that seems to be continually over looked when it comes to international politics, is the old enemy the automobile. 1.2 million people die and over 50 million people are permanently disabled from traffic crashes worldwide each year. A recent WHO report (April 04) showed that road crashes were now the second-biggest cause of death among five to 29-year-olds worldwide. It further predicted (no doubt using probability theory) that without immediate action to improve road safety, the number of road traffic deaths would increase by an estimated 80% in low and middle-income countries by 2020. So who should the average American fear most a Muslim with a boarding pass for a domestic flight or his buddy swigging Bud behind the wheel of a Buick. You do the math!
The western way of life is underpinned by a contradiction, statistics and risk assessment on the one hand and superstition on the other. This results in an inability to conceptualise issues. As a result the American public find it impossible to put their attitudes and response in proportion to the actuality. This risk Vs myth contradiction epitomises a system riddled with discordant attitudes to life and conflicting practices. Which of the two attitudes the government would like the masses to manifest depends on which works to their advantage. They have media machinery to manipulate the minds in order to extract sentiments of panic or complacency. The people then congratulate themselves by believing they have diversity of opinion and have true freedom of expression.
In contrast Islam has a coherent and consistent philosophy of life, and a common source of law to govern our affairs i.e. the Quran and Sunnah. We do not allow probability theory to affect the laws that we live our lives by. We do not allow politicians to use probabilities to mould public opinion. Islam does not require us to base our actions on fatalistic fantasies nor to become slaves of risk assessment and predictions. We merely follow the divine law, Shara. This law is followed whilst we still acknowledge that Allah (Subhanahu wa ta’ala) is fully aware of actions and events past present and future. We place emphasis on what we should do, in legal terms, rather than philosophising about what may or may not befall us. Whatever does happen to us happens only with the will of Allah (Subhanahu wa ta’ala).
Umar ibn al-Khattab set out for ash Sham and when he was at Sargh, near Tabuk, the commanders of the army, Abu Ubayda ibn al-Jarrah and his companions, met him and told him that the plague had broken out in ash-Sham. Ibn Abbas said, "Umar ibn al-Khattab said, 'all the first Muhajir unto me.' He assembled them and asked them for advice, informing them that the plague had broken out in ash Sham. They disagreed. Some said, 'You have set out for something, and we do not think that you should leave it.' Others said, 'You have the companions of the Prophet, may Allah bless him and grant him peace, and the rest of the people with you, and we do not think that you should send them towards this plague.' Umar said, 'Leave me.'
Then he said, 'Summon the Ansar to me.' They were summoned and he asked them for advice. They acted as the Muhajirun had and disagreed as they had disagreed. He said, 'Leave me.' "Then he said, 'Summon to me whoever is here of the aged men of Quraysh from the Muhajirun of the conquest.' He summoned them and not one of them differed. They said, 'We think that you should withdraw the people and not send them towards the plague.' Umar called out to the people, 'I am leaving by camel in the morning,' so they set out. Abu Ubayda said, 'Is it flight from the decree of Allah?' Umar said, 'Better that someone other than you had said it, Abu Ubayda. Yes. We flee from the decree of Allah to the decree of Allah. What would you think if these camels had gone down into a valley which had two slopes, one of them fertile, and the other barren. If you pastured in the fertile part, wouldn't you pasture them by the decree of Allah? If you pastured them in the barren part, wouldn't you pasture them by the decree of Allah?'
''Abd ar-Rahman ibn Awf arrived and he had been off doing something and he said, 'I have some knowledge of this. I heard the Messenger of Allah, may Allah bless him and grant him peace, say, "If you hear about it in a land, do not go forward to it. If it comes upon a land and you are in it, then do not depart in flight from it." ' Umar praised Allah and then set off." [Al Muwatta, Imam Malik]
The above example demonstrates how Umar disproved of trying to settle the problem by speculating about what was written for the group in their divine fate. The issue of knowing what action to do in a particular situation depends not on pondering on our fate, but on seeking out a law extracted from the sacred texts of Islam. A verse of the Quran, a hadith or even an incident from the lives of the sahaba are all better guides for life than probability theory and mathematical models of risk.
Khilafah.com Journal
11 Rabi al-Thani 1425 Hijri
30 May 2004
http://www.khilafah.com/home/category.php?DocumentID=9636&TagID=1
Many of us were taught at school that the branch of mathematics known as probability theory was the science of gamblers. It is a numerical manner of quantifying the precise probability of an ace being dealt from a deck of 52 cards, or a seven being rolled from two dice or a ball stopping on a particular number on a roulette wheel. When gambling on more complex outcomes like a horse winning a race etc other, less well defined, variables have to be taken into account. So here the track record of horse, trainer and jockey, the going on the day and many other factors have to be considered. These principles of probability have now pervaded all aspects of life. Probability theory has gone from the smoke filled rooms of the poker player to the market place, oil production, manufacturing, shipping and even the health care industry.
Health care is an interesting case, as it illustrates many of the issues of probability based risk assessment in a manner that is, apparently, far removed from politics. The risk of death from heart disease is understandably a huge issue that dominates the lives of millions of Americans of a particular age and social status. It is one of the biggest killers of middle class American males between the ages of 40 and 60 years. There have been many prognostic and diagnostic tests developed to aid doctors stratify patients who are suspected of being at risk of a major coronary event. This stratification process helps free-up beds, rationalise treatments, and deliver the most appropriate care for those most at risk. There are currently web sites that offer do-it-yourself checks of cardiac risk. The user may type in values for age, gender, cholesterol and blood pressure and obtain an estimation of 10-year risk of having a heart attack. The process is not an exact science. However formula for calculating cardiac risk are the most developed out of all of the major diseases. Similar approaches are being developed for prostate cancer, breast cancer and Alzheimer’s etc. These models are more akin to astrology than realistic measures of morbidity and mortality. The bottom line is that the medical risk assessment is big business, as the North American male population are prepared to spend big bucks on knowing their long- and short-term health predictions. Diagnostic kits and tests to predict are a lucrative business. These come in the form of home cholesterol and blood pressure testing kits as well as laboratory and hospital based methods. The absolute life span of a human being cannot be predicted using a blood spot test on a strip of plastic. Basically they are getting ripped off, but this doesn’t stop them spending.
It is not just health care that is dominated by the quack practitioners and predictors. We are living in a time when probabilities and statistical evaluations seem to almost govern our lives in every aspect. Investments and markets trends are predicted based on models of probability. These predictions affect employment, manufacturing and production, import and export, foreign investment, loans and credit agreements and almost every element of the modern day economy. As with health care, there are vast amounts of money to be made merely by applying mathematical models without substance.
Returning to the issue of how probabilities affect individuals, there is one particular phenomenon that casts a spell on millions the world over. In 2001 Americans wagered $57 billion dollars on lotteries, $18 billion on horses and dogs, $592 billion in casinos, and $150 billion on other forms gambling. It is difficult to see how anyone would spend money on a lottery ticket considering how long the odds are. Massachusetts sells more than $500 worth of lottery tickets each year for every man, woman, and child. Thousands of people there are just throwing away money to have a 1-to-135,145,920 chance for the jackpot. Applying the term one in a million chance is actual talking up the likelihood of winning. These are not reasonable or rational odds to gamble on. If Western society is sincere in its adherence to scientific ideas and enlightened philosophy how does it explain the fact the people en mass throw away their money chasing a dream, with next to no chance of it being realised.
Perhaps there is a simple explanation; greed. This emotion can push rational people to do irrational things, especially when they are being egged on to do so. Western nations exploit their own poor with lotteries and the like. It is mostly the poor that throw their money into the black hole of national lotteries. This exploitation is explicit in some of the advertising bought by the $400 million spent annually by states to promote lotteries. For example, in Chicago one sign read: “This could be your ticket out.” Ticket out of what? Perhaps the squalid situation that the American underclass find themselves in. In the UK the slogan is “it could be you”, yes it could be you that is lifted from the gutter that you are living in, you poor pathetic piece of dirt. The organisers of lotteries are merely mocking the punters.
Lotteries are not the only example of irrational thought influencing the masses. The West is proud of the enlightened philosophers, their renaissance artisans and their rational scientists. All of these works are worth a hill of beans in light of the irrational culture of fear that is cultivated among the common people of the West. Americans are told to be scared of their own shadow, with regards to those evil terrorists that are about to pounce and destroy all that they cherish. Engendering fear of the terrorist threat is the political lifeblood of politicians such as Blair, Bush and Berlusconi et al. Instilling this concept of fear of Muslims in the people was helped significantly by the image of approximately 3,000 people dying live on cable news network back in September 2001. However horrific those scenes were, one would of thought that “rational” Americans would have the capacity to put things into perspective. If they were to apply the techniques of cold calculated risk assessments, they would see that the actual number of Americans dieing in a terrorist attack on American soil in the year 2000 were zero, as was the case for 2002 and 2003. Even in the year 2001 the probability of dieing in an attack was 1 in 100,000. In that year there was a greater chance of an American dying from influenza or pneumonia; 1 in 4,500, or suicide; 1 in 9,200, or homicide; 1 in 14,000. So the average American should be more scared of himself or his fellow American taking his life rather than some foreign terrorists.
The other big killer, that seems to be continually over looked when it comes to international politics, is the old enemy the automobile. 1.2 million people die and over 50 million people are permanently disabled from traffic crashes worldwide each year. A recent WHO report (April 04) showed that road crashes were now the second-biggest cause of death among five to 29-year-olds worldwide. It further predicted (no doubt using probability theory) that without immediate action to improve road safety, the number of road traffic deaths would increase by an estimated 80% in low and middle-income countries by 2020. So who should the average American fear most a Muslim with a boarding pass for a domestic flight or his buddy swigging Bud behind the wheel of a Buick. You do the math!
The western way of life is underpinned by a contradiction, statistics and risk assessment on the one hand and superstition on the other. This results in an inability to conceptualise issues. As a result the American public find it impossible to put their attitudes and response in proportion to the actuality. This risk Vs myth contradiction epitomises a system riddled with discordant attitudes to life and conflicting practices. Which of the two attitudes the government would like the masses to manifest depends on which works to their advantage. They have media machinery to manipulate the minds in order to extract sentiments of panic or complacency. The people then congratulate themselves by believing they have diversity of opinion and have true freedom of expression.
In contrast Islam has a coherent and consistent philosophy of life, and a common source of law to govern our affairs i.e. the Quran and Sunnah. We do not allow probability theory to affect the laws that we live our lives by. We do not allow politicians to use probabilities to mould public opinion. Islam does not require us to base our actions on fatalistic fantasies nor to become slaves of risk assessment and predictions. We merely follow the divine law, Shara. This law is followed whilst we still acknowledge that Allah (Subhanahu wa ta’ala) is fully aware of actions and events past present and future. We place emphasis on what we should do, in legal terms, rather than philosophising about what may or may not befall us. Whatever does happen to us happens only with the will of Allah (Subhanahu wa ta’ala).
Umar ibn al-Khattab set out for ash Sham and when he was at Sargh, near Tabuk, the commanders of the army, Abu Ubayda ibn al-Jarrah and his companions, met him and told him that the plague had broken out in ash-Sham. Ibn Abbas said, "Umar ibn al-Khattab said, 'all the first Muhajir unto me.' He assembled them and asked them for advice, informing them that the plague had broken out in ash Sham. They disagreed. Some said, 'You have set out for something, and we do not think that you should leave it.' Others said, 'You have the companions of the Prophet, may Allah bless him and grant him peace, and the rest of the people with you, and we do not think that you should send them towards this plague.' Umar said, 'Leave me.'
Then he said, 'Summon the Ansar to me.' They were summoned and he asked them for advice. They acted as the Muhajirun had and disagreed as they had disagreed. He said, 'Leave me.' "Then he said, 'Summon to me whoever is here of the aged men of Quraysh from the Muhajirun of the conquest.' He summoned them and not one of them differed. They said, 'We think that you should withdraw the people and not send them towards the plague.' Umar called out to the people, 'I am leaving by camel in the morning,' so they set out. Abu Ubayda said, 'Is it flight from the decree of Allah?' Umar said, 'Better that someone other than you had said it, Abu Ubayda. Yes. We flee from the decree of Allah to the decree of Allah. What would you think if these camels had gone down into a valley which had two slopes, one of them fertile, and the other barren. If you pastured in the fertile part, wouldn't you pasture them by the decree of Allah? If you pastured them in the barren part, wouldn't you pasture them by the decree of Allah?'
''Abd ar-Rahman ibn Awf arrived and he had been off doing something and he said, 'I have some knowledge of this. I heard the Messenger of Allah, may Allah bless him and grant him peace, say, "If you hear about it in a land, do not go forward to it. If it comes upon a land and you are in it, then do not depart in flight from it." ' Umar praised Allah and then set off." [Al Muwatta, Imam Malik]
The above example demonstrates how Umar disproved of trying to settle the problem by speculating about what was written for the group in their divine fate. The issue of knowing what action to do in a particular situation depends not on pondering on our fate, but on seeking out a law extracted from the sacred texts of Islam. A verse of the Quran, a hadith or even an incident from the lives of the sahaba are all better guides for life than probability theory and mathematical models of risk.
Khilafah.com Journal
11 Rabi al-Thani 1425 Hijri
30 May 2004